Will war I break out in 2022?
It is hard to say where the first war will break out in 2022, but Ukraine is undoubtedly a powder keg worth paying attention to. At the beginning of 2022, the United States will make three major moves in the direction of Ukraine, and the oppression of Russia is almost a showdown.Using the Ukraine issue to put pressure on Russia has been a long-standing STRATEGY of the US, and at the beginning of 2022, the US side will use a new three axe to put pressure on Russia.According to the Global Times on January 23, citing Fox News, the US State Department issued a notice saying that it “strongly advises” the families of US diplomats in Ukraine to leave the country because of the risk of A Possible Russian invasion. It also advises all Americans to stay away from Ukraine.Such announcements could easily lead to the possibility of war breaking out in Ukraine.If the call for Americans to stay out of Ukraine was merely a political gesture, the next two moves by the United States had practical military implications.The first shipment of an additional $200 million in pentagon military aid to Ukraine arrived in the early hours of Jan. 22, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine announced. The shipment consists of 90 tons of small arms, ammunition and communications equipment.In addition, the United States has approved the supply of arms to Ukraine from the three Baltic states, indirectly bypassing the United States and providing Ukraine with more equipment, including javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger manpads.Although the arrival of these weapons, decisive ascension makes little sense to Ukrainian military forces, but part of the upgrade Ukrainian military defences or helpful, the arrival of these military assistance, is likely to be for Russia to form a new stimulus, will comfort to Ukraine is New Jersey linsky authorities, said the U.S. Allies haven’t forgot to Ukraine.In the end, American aircraft carriers also appeared, entering the area around Ukraine.Since January 24, the US Aircraft carrier “Truman” battle group and NATO countries have held joint military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea.There are only three aircraft carriers in deployment, two of which are active in the Asia-Pacific region, and the last one has been deployed to the Mediterranean Sea, where the U.S. military can intervene in Ukraine. The purpose of deterring Russia is obvious.The presence of an American aircraft carrier, supported by other NATO countries, is bound to put considerable pressure on Russia.For Russia, the support of the United States and its Allies for Ukraine is already a constant security pressure, and the fact that the United States is sending an aircraft carrier to conduct exercises with NATO in the neighboring region makes the saber-rattling all the more obvious.Taken together, these three moves amount to an ultimatum to Russia, making it seem as if the first battle of 2022 will be fought in Ukraine.But despite the new pressure campaign, the United States does not feel confident that its military will actually support Ukraine and Russia.Although the NATO bloc is far superior to Russia in terms of overall strength and has several times more conventional forces, Ukraine is a bottom line for Russia and not a costly engagement for most NATO countries, even for the United States.NATO would certainly balk at a war with Russia in Ukraine, since the Biden administration has ruled out direct military involvement in Ukraine, not on the expectation that other, much weaker European countries would intervene militarily.Germany is a good example, while Germany has said will also support the government of Ukraine, but Germany’s support is not to provide weapons and equipment, but Ukraine a hospital, Germany will help establish a specialized hospital in Ukraine, a move that could contain remind what are the consequences if the authorities will play big meaning.After all, there is something to be lost in a war, especially in a confrontation with Russia.So while NATO’s support for Ukraine now seems enthusiastic, it is a peace-time gesture, not a sign that the alliance is ready for war with Russia.The United States even though sounded tough on Russia, but action is still very cautious, since American military assistance to Ukraine’s largest scale is also provide small arms, really crucial heavy weapons, the United States don’t offer Ukraine, because they know it is likely to cause anger and Russia real fight back.In 2022, Ukraine may indeed be the site of the first war, but the chances are limited, especially since the United States and the West understand the consequences of a war with Russia and are likely to choose to wait and see as the fighting worsens, using only economic means to hit Russia.It would be wise for The Ukrainians not to imagine that the West will fight directly with Russia over Ukraine, and that Ukraine will not win if the war escalates.